With the November general election over, now is the perfect time to lay the groundwork for mapping data in future elections. Journalists reporting for print can follow races throughout election night and then analyze the data using geographic information system (GIS) software when the final results are released. Those of us in television and online media have another challenge: generating worthwhile analysis of the election as it develops.
Preparation can help your news organization provide thoughtful coverage of the election in advance and even as it happens. There's plenty you can do right now. If an incumbent is running for office, you can analyze earlier results to see where that candidate's support was strongest. If there's a challenger, examine election results from the primary election or any earlier races that included the challenger.
You also can obtain information on the number of registered voters and voter turnout in previous elections. This can give you a sense of the "power precincts" within your voting area. With these maps in hand, you can either present an election preview story or simply make sure your anchors are well-briefed to analyze the election as the results roll in. To election mapping you'll need a GIS program, such as ESRI's ArcView, data on voter registration and results, and mapping shapefiles that show voting precincts.
Many journalists have been able to obtain registration and results in common data formats (such as ASCII text) that can be easily imported into a database manager, such as Microsoft Access. Sometimes this information is only readily available in Adobe Acrobat PDF files. If that's the case, you will need to convert these to text tables using the no-cost XPDF or a similar tool from a commercial vendor.
You also will need to get election map shapefiles required to display the data in ArcView. Check first with the elections division in your state's secretary of state's office. The cost, if any, will vary. In Tennessee, a voting precinct shapefile for a county costs $10. Tennessee has 95 counties, so the cost for the entire state would run more than $1,000 after sales tax. If you're only seeking maps for your viewing or circulation area, the cost would be lower.
Another option is to check with the commissioner of elections in each county, you might be able to do better on the cost. If you're unable to obtain the precinct shapefiles, you may need to shift gears and examine results by county. County election commissioners usually total the results from all their precincts, and then send them along to the state. To complement the data, you can then use county shapefiles, which are available from a number of sources.
A few maps can go a long way in your reporting. Perhaps the simplest is a map showing which candidate won each county or precinct. If you're examining a two-candidate race you can easily calculate the winner in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. If there are more than two candidates, you may find it easier to move your data into a database manager, such as Access, and run update queries to indicate whether a candidate is the winner.
In addition to showing wins, you can show the strength of victory using a color scheme or other map graphics. I recently used a 10 percent margin as my benchmark for strong support. You can adjust the benchmark, based upon voting history in your area. The victory-margin map helped for a WBIR report that showed how a powerful Republican sheriff nearly lost to a lightly funded challenger who made inroads into a Republican stronghold.
The strength-of-win map showed that, although the incumbent held onto the majority of the votes in that area, it was a close race. Another informative map shows turnout. You can create this by getting data on registered voters and voter turnout records for past elections. That will show you the high-activity areas and help you see turnout trends. These are just three examples of the maps you can make for election night.
The simplicity of the numbers available limits the ways in which you can work with the data. On the upside, the maps are easier for everyone to understand. Contact Jacob Jost by e-mail at jjost@wbir.gannett.com.