Using aviation safety documents (#677)

The NTSB's aircraft accident investigation process relies heavily on input from manufacturers and airlines who have financial incentives to minimize culpability, potentially delaying preventative safety measures until crashes occur. As aviation traffic increases and aircraft age, experts warn that this approach is inadequate and the public remains largely uninformed about safety concerns.

Know the landscape. Determining the probable cause of an aviation disaster is the responsibility of the NTSB, a small, quirky federal agency whose investigators pride themselves on objectivity and scientific certainty. Yet the NTSB openly solicits technical expertise from aircraft manufacturers, airlines, pilots and mechanics. You can bet each group possesses a strong self-protection bias. The NTSB's crash-site "go-team" usually includes engineers from the aircraft and engine manufacturers, who invariably take the lead in identifying and retrieving wreckage material. The manufacturers then use their own labs and technicians to analyze and test suspect parts. Pilots, mechanics and airline representatives are assigned to check maintenance records and research what role, if any, ground and flight crew missteps may have played in the accident. Commercial jets crash, on average, less than two times for every 1 million flights. Assuming the overall accident rate remains low for the foreseeable future, air travel should continue to expand about 5 percent annually. That means the total number of crashes will continue to climb year to year. Factor in aging aircraft issues and increasing competition among airlines, and a disturbing trend isn't hard to predict. In fact, many experts think the trend toward messy air disasters occurring weekly is already well under way.

The present approach of dealing with accidents by permitting the potentially culpable parties to sift through wreckage, negotiate a probable cause and then methodically take steps to make sure it doesn't happen again is under strain. It gives manufacturers and airlines, who are driven by economic concerns, the benefit of the doubt; and it skews against preventative measures taken in a timely fashion. Too often a long trail of problem flights, dead-end investigations and incremental upgrades - precursors of a disaster in the making - is ignored until a crash or crashes occur. Meanwhile the public is by and large left out of the loop.

Byron Acohido can be reached by e-mail at bacchido@seattletimes.com