New Jersey has the highest per-capita property-tax burden in the nation. With this in mind and a governor's election in November we embarked on a mission to determine what happened to property taxes in New Jersey.
The target period was 1993, the year before Gov. Christie Whitman entered office, and 1996, which was the latest year available.
The result was a project in the Aug. 24 Inquirer that I reported and wrote with James M. O'Neill from our Trenton bureau. We looked at every residential property in New Jersey and compared each property's tax bill between 1993 and 1996. The analysis of more than 2 million records in each year taxed MS Access, but SPSS picked up the slack.
However, the important computer-assisted reporting revelation wasn't how to do a tax story. The important step was coming up with a unique economic analysis using CAR tools.
Every reporter with CAR skills and some knowledge of statistics can put together a regional economic analysis that may rival similar analyses done by local planning boards, academics or others.
There may be reluctance to venture into economics because the subject seems so technical and full of ambiguities. Don't worry. You can make a contribution. In our tax piece, we found the median increase in a residential property tax bill was about 12 percent between 1993 and 1996. Yet, Gov. Whitman said state income tax cuts made up for the increases. That was hard to pin down, but we used 1989 (1990 census) median household income statistics to estimate incomes in municipalities in 1993 and 1996. We calculated income tax bills each year and found the change. In the higher-income communities, the income-tax cut often made up for the increase in property taxes. How were those income estimates made? We turned to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Commerce Department), which makes wage, salary and personal income estimates for counties. We applied the county-level income increases from the BEA to the 1989 median household incomes by municipality. We tested the estimates using the CPI and found the BEA method didn't yield crazy results. (One key assumption, though, was that the typical household in a community saw increased income. We noted in the story that if the household's income were flat between 1993 and 1996, the tax cuts would have been even greater.)
Data sources
Here are some of the sources of regional economic data we used for this story and others involving regional economic analysis:
Income data (BEA). A wonderful source is at http://www.stat-usa.gov. Estimates of personal income, earnings, wages and salaries are available for states, metros and counties. Unfortunately, there is a subscription fee (no press privileges). The Bureau of Economic Analysis' site is http://www.bea.doc.gov. This is free and you can at least get the news releases and maybe some data. The BEA also makes income projections by metro area to the year 2045.
Income data (BLS and Census). Hourly earnings and other data from the Current Population Survey and other sources available at http://www.bls.gov, the BLS (U.S. Department of Labor) site. The Census Bureau's income data tends to be more dated than the BEA's. The site is http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income.html. The BLS' Consumer Price Index also is available at the BLS site.
Employment data (BLS). Many reporters say their state labor departments have a lot more data than BLS. However, in most cases the data released by state departments originate with the BLS. The two leading employment series: civilian labor force (residence-based) and payroll employment (employer-based). The civilian labor force number comes from the Current Population Survey and is used to calculate the unemployment rate. The civilian labor force number is national, with estimates for the states. For example, total civilian employment in Pennsylvania is the number of Pennsylvania residents who are employed. By contrast, payroll employment data (also called "establishment employment" or "series 790 data") are based on employer location and not job holder residence. For example, payroll employment in Pennsylvania is the number of jobs within the state borders - even if residents of New Jersey fill some of them. The 790 data typically are available only to the metro area level although the central cities of Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington and New York are released. The payroll employment data also breaks industries down to sub-industry groups. Local residence-level employment data are available through the BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. Some economists call these numbers the laus-y statistics because they are gross estimates and probably subject to a great deal of error (which isn't measured). However, as questionable as these data are they are available each month on the county or municipal levels. Finally, the Series 202 data now available from state labor departments and available in the future from the BLS is based on a quarterly survey of every employer and includes wage and employment information. It is available down to at least the county level (and is viewed as relatively solid; the BLS uses the 202 numbers to benchmark the 790 numbers). Some data are available at http://www.bls.gov.
Businesses (County Business Patterns). The Census Bureau each year publishes County Business Patterns, tracking employment, payroll and establishment totals down to four-digit SIC codes. For example, in 1994 there were 92 video-rental establishments employing 894 people and paying them a total of $10,482,000 a year in Philadelphia. So? You may be studying the size of one industry versus another. The CBP series isn't based on surveys, so there is no sampling error. The Census Bureau uses administrative records for CBP. However, there is a lag. The latest available, 1994, was released last fall.
A problem is that the bureau withholds some data information about one employer might be disclosed. This becomes common when you move to three- or four-digit SIC codes or you concentrate on smaller counties in your analysis. Find out more at http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/view/cbpview.html. Complete reports are available for download by state using Acrobat Reader (pdf files).
Economic Censuses. While we know a bit about local businesses from County Business Patterns, the Census Bureau's economic censuses can fill in some of the "holes." The censuses of Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade, Services, Services/Tax-Exempt, FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate), Manufacturing, Mining and Construction show the number of establishments, annual receipts and number of employees. These censuses come out for years ending in "2" and "7." For information: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/92results.html
Gross output. We all know that Gross Domestic Output (GDP) measures the output of goods and services for the national economy. However, there is GDP available at a state level, called appropriately Gross State Product. The database is simple: the total output of goods and services down to two-digit SIC code for each state. "Output" in this case is the value added to the good or service by an industry within a state. Because it is a value-added measure, there is no double counting (for example, the value of raw materials brought into Pennsylvania to make a product would not be counted in Pennsylvania's output).
State/Local government finances/taxes. The Census Bureau's government page at http://www.census.gov/govs/www/index.html is overflowing with useful statistics. Included are 1992 through 1996 state tax collection data, state and local government finances from 1991 through 1994, financial information for larger counties and 1992 through 1995 state government payrolls.
Federal tax data. The IRS' Statistics of Income (SOI) program has a useful site packed with tax statistics at http://www.irs.gov/tax_stats/index.html. Besides the statistics, you can download the IRS tax-exempt organizations file by state. Links to state tax departments are available at http://www.irs.gov/prod/forms_pubs/ftaframes.html. Other tax-related sites are available at http://www.irs.gov/prod/forms_pubs/ftaframes.html.
Other local economic data. Each state has a data center affiliated with the Census Bureau. The links to these centers is at http://www.census.gov/sdc/www/. If you rummage through your data center's site, you can come up with local economic statistics, building permits and other useful data.
Neill A. Borowski can be reached, by e-mail at neill.borowski@phillynews.com.